Market Analysis by Dincer Keskinpala

Q3 Reports and Company Results

2009-10-16T17:41:00.004+03:00

Wall Street is about to say ' Bye Bye Rally '. Today investors disappointed with BofA, GE and IBM Q3 results. These results gave investors a reason to retreat after pushing the Dow of 10.000.

Bank of America reported a third-quarter loss of 26 cents per share, which was worse than the loss of 21 cents per share. BofA also fell behind expectations on revenue, reporting $26 billion for the third quarter, compared forecast of $27.6 billion. BofA shares fell nearly %6.
General Electric reported earnings of 28 cents per share, which was higher than expected, and revenue of $37.8 billion, which was lower than forecast. Analysts had expected GE to report third-quarter EPS of 20 cents and revenue of $39.5 billion. Investors were disappointed as most of the profit gains came from cost-cutting efforts. GE's stock slipped nearly %5.

But Google's upbeat outlook provides some strength. Google said Thursday the worst of the recession has passed, as it reported quarterly profit and sales that rose from year-earlier results and easily trounced Wall Street's forecasts.

So we are looking for future and waiting situation before new year. Markets will finish rally that easy? I dont think so.

( Source : http://money.cnn.com )

Turkcell : 52 Week High

2009-10-09T22:34:00.008+03:00

Turkcell ( NYSE:TKC ), is a provider of mobile services in Turkey, has reached 52 week high on Wall Street. Turkcell shares were about nearly $9.50 when crisis has started. But after that period, shares rebound as a result of company's strong financial position.

The biggest Turkish mobile services provider made important investments, e.g. 3G, in Turkey and user base shows slight growth. Especially Turkcell's mobile internet users increased 59% in 2 years from 12 million to 19.1 million.

( Graph by cnbc.com )

In U.S, if share reaches to 52 week high it means crisis is over and company is looking to future. Turkcell is one of a few companies which could get to this situation on Wall Street. Turkcell has 16.04B mkt cap and Div/yield 0.81/4.44.

I think investors will be interesting Turkcell shares closely also in new year.

Giants Give Profit ' a Pulse ' ?

2009-10-06T15:16:00.002+03:00

From Bloomberg:

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Intel may this quarter lead companies worldwide to the first profit increases in more than two years, ending the longest earnings recession on record.
Buoyed by finance and semiconductors, profits at the world’s biggest companies are projected to grow 63 percent in the final three months of 2009, snapping nine straight quarterly declines.

Anaylsts think profits Q4 earnings will more than double from a year ago. For the third quarter, the largest financial companies will likely report higher earnings than a year ago. Morgan Stanley is expected to post the first gain from continuing operations in a year, while Citi's operating loss is expected to shrink, according to analysts.

Analysts also expect Wal-Mart to post a 15 percent gain in fourth-quarter net income. Japan's three automakers may report lower earnings as a stronger yen offset gains from government incentives in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

So im just waiting to see if Dow could reach 10.000 till new year. But i think it will only try that last chance before second shock of markets.

Two Straight Weekly Declines Finish?

2009-10-05T16:57:00.002+03:00

Today U.S stocks rose and rebounding from two straight weekly declines. Goldman recommended large banks and investors speculated service industries stabilized. The dollar fell versus the euro, crude oil slipped and treasuries gained.

A team of Credit Suisse Group AG strategists wrote : “Tactical indicators at current levels would normally lead us to downgrade equities, but their signals are less meaningful at this stage in the cycle.”

Microsoft' CEO Steven Ballmer said today in London the next few years will be the “best yet” for the information- technology industry. And MS shares advances to $25.

Also JPMorgan climbed 1.3 percent to $42.42. Wells Fargo gained 4.7 percent to $27.52. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on large U.S. banks to “attractive,” citing the outlook for earnings. The firm also upgraded Wells Fargo to “buy” from “neutral.”

So this week has started with shine.

Morgan Posts Q4 Report

2008-12-17T16:14:00.002+02:00

Morgan Stanley reported a much wider-than-expected quarterly loss as the credit crisis generated more writedowns and slashed fees from investment banking and brokerage. Morgan posted a net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.24 a share, during the fourth quarter. Including results from discontinued operations, the company said it lost $2.34 a share.

Morgan Stanley, which dropped 70 percent on the New York Stock Exchange this year, jumped 18 percent yesterday after Goldman Sachs's loss was smaller than some analysts estimated and the Federal Reserve said it would cut the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero and buy debt to help combat the recession. The stock fell to $15.35 in New York from $16.13 yesterday.

From Bloomberg;

Morgan Stanley today reported fourth-quarter mortgage- related losses of $1.2 billion, which were more than offset by net revenue of $2.7 billion from the widening of Morgan Stanley's credit spreads. The firm had mark-to-market losses of $1.7 billion on leveraged loans and leveraged-loan commitments, and writedowns of $800 million on securities in the firm's subsidiary banks. Those losses were offset by gains of $1.1 billion related to debt hedges.

The company also booked $1.8 billion in investment losses during the quarter from real-estate funds and other principal investments.

Morgan Stanley said last month it was cutting 10 percent of the jobs in the institutional securities division and 9 percent of the positions in asset management to help offset lower revenue. The company also said it was hiring two Wachovia Corp. executives to build a new consumer banking division as part of an effort to attract deposits.

FED Cuts Rates

2008-12-17T01:17:00.002+02:00

FED cut the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero for the first time and shifted its focus to the amount and type of debt it buys, seeking to revive credit and end the longest slump in a quarter- century.

The surprise move to lower its target for the benchmark federal funds rate from one percent puts the Fed in uncharted territory. Financial markets had expected the Fed to lower rates by no more than three-quarters of a point, to 0.25 percent.

There are some concerns that taking the fed funds rate so close to zero leaves the Fed with little room for additional moves if the economy does not start to show signs of improvement soon.

But the Fed said in a statement that it is looking at different steps it can take to stimulate the economy and keep market rates low, including the purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury notes. The Fed also said it will consider other, yet to be disclosed moves as well.

Markets soar after decision and christmas rally maybe started.

Economic Calendar of the Week

2008-12-14T23:10:00.002+02:00

The week ahead for Wall Street ;

Monday: The December NY Empire State index, a regional reading on manufacturing, is expected to improve modestly to a reading of minus 27 from a reading of minus 25 in November. The two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting begins.

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs and Best Buy report earnings before the start of trade. Economic reports are due on housing and consumer inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting concludes, with a decision on interest rates due.

Wednesday: Morgan Stanley reports quarterly earnings before the start of trade.

Thursday: In the early morning, FexEx is expected to report quarterly earnings.

A pair of economic reports are due shortly after the start of trade. The Philadelphia Fed index, the Philly counterpart to Monday's New York manufacturing index, is expected to have dipped to negative 40 from negative 39.3 in the previous month.

The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in November after dropping by 0.8% in the previous month.

After the close of trade, Oracle is expected to report earnings of 34 cents per share, up from 31 cents a share a year ago.

Friday: The December "triple witching" day, a quarterly event when stock options, equity index options and equity index futures are all expiring simultaneously.

Retail Sales Fall

2008-12-13T17:37:00.003+02:00

Retail sales fell for the fifth straight month in November as mounting job losses last month curbed consumers' ability and willingness to spend money in stores. The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell 1.8% last month, compared with a revised 2.9% drop in October, the worst monthly sales on record. October sales were originally reported to have tumbled 2.8%.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts fell 1.6% in November, compared to a revised 2.4% drop in October. Ex-auto sales were originally reported to have fallen 2.2% in October.

The Census Bureau reports that retail sales collapsed in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $355.7 billion, a decrease of 1.8 percent from the previous month and 7.4 percent below November 2007. Total sales for the September through November 2008 period were down 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2008 percent change was revised from -2.8 percent to -2.9 percent.

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993.

Click on graph for larger image

( Graph link : http://calculated.blogspot.com )

To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (November PCE prices was estimated as the same as October).

Retail sales are a key portion of consumer spending and real retail sales have fallen off a cliff.

Global Oil Recession

2008-12-11T21:07:00.002+02:00

The International Energy Agency said that global oil demand will shrink this year for the first time in a quarter-century as rich nations fall into recession and growth slows in the developing world. For the first time in 25 years, demand for crude oil will fall.

The IEA cut its forecast for global oil demand this year by 350,000 barrels a day to 85.8 million barrels a day, down 0.2% from 2007.

Global oil demand will increase 0.5% next year to 86.3 million barrels a day, the IEA said, but it added that this forecast assumes that the plunge in OECD economic growth will bottom out next year and recover in the second half of 2009. The International Monetary Fund has made a similar estimate.

But oil prices jumped today after the House passed a $14 billion stop-gap measure designed to keep the U.S. auto industry from immediate collapse. The dollar slipped against the 15-nation euro, British pound and Japanese yen. So oil prices rose on Thursday as the value of the U.S. dollar fell versus other major currencies.

Investors are also looking for a large cut in production from the OPEC about 40% of the world's oil.

Scary Predictions

2008-12-10T18:38:00.002+02:00

Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about to future is frightening.

Dr.Doom ( N. Roubini ) told that ;

We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.

Roubini added that home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010. And the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010.

Last of all, Prof. Roubini adviced to investors about future. He said ;

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth.

Stocks Rally

2008-12-08T22:22:00.002+02:00

What a nice monday! Stocks soar all of global markets. Asia has started the day with a big bounce. After that European markets joined that rally. Last of all, Wall Street adds to recent rally on Obama comments on economy and hopes for automakers.

Barack Obama pledged to boost the economy with the biggest public-works spending package since the 1950s. Obama’s plan to boost the economy with a “substantial” infrastructure stimulus package sent global stocks rallying.

At a briefing Monday morning, White House press secretary Dana Perino said "we've certainly come a long way from where we were at the beginning of last week," and that "indications are that the legislation is moving more towards what the President could support." So GM and Chyrsler could get up to $15 billion in federal loans as soon as Dec. 15, according to a working Democratic draft of proposed bailout legislation. After that reports GM shares jumped as much as 25 percent.

LIBOR Declines

2008-11-11T22:43:00.002+02:00

The U.S. bond market is closed today for Veterans Da. So other indicators are not available today.

From Bloomberg report ;

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars slid 6 basis points to 2.18 percent today, the 22nd consecutive decline and the lowest level since Oct. 29, 2004, according to British Bankers' Association data.

The three-month LIBOR was at 2.24% yesterday.But it was 4.81875% at record on October 10th. This indicator shows well about credit transfers of banks. Investment should raise and i am still checking Libor out.

Big Slowdown in China

2008-11-09T13:22:00.002+02:00

From Bloomberg: China's Economic Growth May Slump as Spending Comes Too Late

Gross domestic product may advance 7.5 percent or less, the weakest since 1990, according to estimates by Credit Suisse AG, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc predicts the economy will grow 8 percent next year, while 5 percent ``can't be ruled out.''
...
``The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai. Green is reviewing his 7.9 percent forecast for next year because a ``big fiscal policy package'' hasn't arrived.

If China tries to stimulate their own economy, what happens to US ? US made China's economy bigger with import. At the moment economy is going slowdown and demand vanishes. So that could have negative impact on the U.S economy as much as China.

Lets Check Indicators Today

2008-11-06T23:22:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries fell to 0.37% from 0.44%.

It was 0.44 yesterday and slightly getting worse. Usually the 3 month trades below the target Fed Funds rate by around 25 bps, so this is too low with the Fed funds rate at 1.0%. It should increase closer to the target rate. Still low.

Libor declined again today.Three-month U.S. dollar slid 0.13 points to 2.38 percent from 2.51.

This is so good. I was waiting Libor comes below 3. Signs are slightly better. Waiting for 2 anymore.

The TED spread 2.01, down from 2.07.

Also nice change today again. Its still too high but better than the peak of 4.63. TED spread should move back down to 2. Close again.

USD-JPY currencies up to 97.7750.

It fell from 98.4600. Seems not well today. Markets falled and Japan Yen getting strengthen.

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is down to 3.82 from 4.18.

Slightly better. But it should decline more and more.

VIX up to 63.68.

Bad. It was 55.07 yesterday but the record was 80.6 this year. Dow slumped again today and volatility getting rise. Dangerous.

Markets on fair and real economy is weakness.So indicators are complicated.Need to be careful more than anytime.

What Happened to Indicators

2008-11-05T22:44:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries fell to 0.44% from 0.47%.

It was 0.47 yesterday and slightly getting worse. Usually the 3 month trades below the target Fed Funds rate by around 25 bps, so this is too low with the Fed funds rate at 1.0%. It should increase closer to the target rate. Still low.

Libor declined again today.Three-month U.S. dollar slid 0.21 point to 2.51 percent from 2.72.

This is so good. I was waiting Libor comes below 3. Signs are slightly better. Waiting for 2.

The TED spread 2.07, down from 2.33.

Also nice change today again. Its still too high but better than the peak of 4.63. TED spread should move back down to 2. Close

USD-JPY currencies up to 98.4600.

It fell from 99.6850. Seems not well/

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is down to 4.18 from 4.45.

Slightly better. But it should decline more and more.

VIX up to 55.07.

Bad. It was 48.95 yesterday but the record was 80.6 this year. Dow slumped today and volatility getting rise.

Economic datas make us frightening and indicators show nothing about real economy for today.

ISM Services Index Declined

2008-11-05T19:43:00.003+02:00

From the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report ;

"The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 44.4 percent in October, 5.8 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent registered in September, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector after two consecutive months of growth."

"Uncertainty is having the usual effect on business. Our response is traditional — stop all discretionary spending."

"Business down significantly! Discretionary spending disappearing."

As you see, consumers and businesses react to uncertainity. If business can't adjust to changes in economic conditions, it would keep going down.

Indicators Smiling

2008-11-04T22:31:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries rised to 0.47% from 0.44%.

It was 0.44 yesterday and slightly getting well. Usually the 3 month trades below the target Fed Funds rate by around 25 bps, so this is too low with the Fed funds rate at 1.0%. It should increase closer to the target rate. Still low.

Libor declined again today.Three-month U.S. dollar slid 0.15 point to 2.72 percent from 3.03.

This is so good. I was waiting Libor comes below 3. Signs are slightly better.

The TED spread 2.33, down from 2.39.

Also nice change today again. Its still too high but better than the peak of 4.63. TED spread should move back down to 2.

USD-JPY currencies up to 99.6850.

It rised a little from 99.0800. One more positive change again. Going well.

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is down to 4.45 from 4.58.

Slightly better. But it should decline more and more.

VIX down to 48.95.

Great. It was 55.10 yesterday but the record was 80.6 this year. Excellent change. Volatility getting lose.

Im hopeful much more today. Indicators seem well and crisis effects on money-markets getting slow.There is more progress today.

Indicators Getting Well

2008-11-03T22:06:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries rised to 0.44% from 0.42%.

It was 0.42 yesterday and slightly getting well. Usually the 3 month trades below the target Fed Funds rate by around 25 bps, so this is too low with the Fed funds rate at 1.0%. It should increase closer to the target rate. Still low.

Libor declined again today.Three-month U.S. dollar slid 0.17 point to 2.86 percent from 3.03.

This is so good. I was waiting Libor comes below 3. Signs are slightly better.

The TED spread 2.39, down from 2.60.

Also nice change. Its still too high but better than the peak of 4.63. TED spread should move back down to 2.

USD-JPY currencies up to 99.0800.

It rised from 98.5100. One more positive change.

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is down to 4.58 from a record 4.72 from.

Better. But it should decline more.

VIX down to 55.10.

It was 59.89 on friday and awesome decline from there. Volatility is getting lose. So thats great news.

As you see, we notice some progress today. And im hopeful more. But its big crisis and indicators will not show the credit crisis is over. These are just indicators that we evaluate of markets mood.

ISM Factory Index Drop

2008-11-03T19:59:00.000+02:00

From MarketWatch:

The Institute for Supply Management reported Monday [that the] ISM index fell to 38.9% in October from 43.5% in September. This is the lowest level since September 1982.

This really sucks.

GM Turned down by Government

2008-11-03T13:10:00.002+02:00

From NY Times ;

The Treasury Department has turned down a request by General Motors for up to $10 billion to help finance the automaker’s possible merger with Chrysler ... the Bush administration will now shift its focus to speeding up the $25 billion loan program for fuel-efficient vehicles approved by Congress in September and administered by the Energy Department.
...
While G.M. and Chrysler continue to talk, no deal is expected until the government clarifies its role, if any.

If this deal will not agree, Chrysler will probably go bankrupt. Lots of people will lose their jobs. Some lenders will be stuck with Chrysler pier loans.

GM futures up for now but we will see its change by time on markets.

PCE Declined in September

2008-11-01T13:08:00.002+02:00

We expected as based on the advance GDP report, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) declined sharply in September.

The YoY change in real PCE is now negative. Its the first time negative index since 1991.

Consumers lifted savings as they dealt with falling equity prices and uncertainty about their jobs.

From WSJ Online ;

Personal income rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.2% compared to the month before, the Commerce Department said Friday. Income increased a revised 0.4% in August; originally, income for that month was seen 0.5% higher.

September personal consumption fell 0.3% compared to the month before. Spending had been flat in August, as originally reported.
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 1.3% in September, up from 0.8% in August.

Indicators Mixed

2008-10-31T22:28:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries declined sharply to 0.42% from 0.48%.

It was 0.48 yesterday and slightly getting worse. Usually the 3 month trades below the target Fed Funds rate by around 25 bps, so this is too low with the Fed funds rate at 1.0%. It should increase closer to the target rate.

Libor declined again today.Three-month U.S. dollar slid 0.16 point to 3.03 percent from 3.1925.

U know i will be happy when libor comes below 3. Nice challange.

The TED spread 2.60, down from 2.70.

Slightly better also today. But im still waiting to move below 2.

USD-JPY currencies up to 98.5100.

Same with yesterday. It will be nice if currency up over 100.

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is at a new record ! Up to 4.72 from 4.69.

VIX down to 59.89.

Best data. This is still way too high, but significantly below the peak of 80.6. If volatility decreases, markets would calm down.

- Today Libor and VIX down, but 3 months treasuries yield down too. TED and A2/P2 spread still too high. But FED buys commercial papers thats why A2/P2 spread is at a record high. If we think like this, there is some progress on credit crisis.

What a Dilemma

2008-10-31T18:46:00.002+02:00

The Fed released the weekly balance sheet report. The Fed reported that the Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC holds $145.7 billion in 16 to 90 day commercial paper.

The Federal Reserve bought commercial paper valued at $145.7 billion in the first days of the program aimed at backstopping the market, indicating the central bank is generating most of this week's record gains in short-term corporate borrowing.

The central bank extended $144.8 billion of loans as of yesterday to a unit that paid $143.9 billion for the debt, the Fed's weekly balance-sheet report said today.

The main question is ; How could Fed get all these funds ? ( All of bailout plan )
The answer is ; by citizens.

American economy grows with consumption expenditures. So can u see the dilemma ?

Lets Check Indicators Today

2008-10-30T22:14:00.002+02:00

The yield on 3 month treasuries declined sharply to 0.48% from 0.60%.

The 3 month yield is still some improvement from the worst of the credit crisis. It was close to zero couple days ago. So this is worse data.

Libor declined today.Three-month U.S. dollar Libor fell to 3.1925%.

This is good data. I am still waiting for Libor comes to below 3.

The TED spread 2.70, down from 2.82.

Slightly better but still too high. I will be happy the spread move back down at least 2.0.

USD-JPY currencies up to 98.6650.

Seems good. Dollar needs to get strengthen versus Yen. It means investors are still interested in carry-trade.

Nonfinancial A2/P2 spread is at a record ! Up to 4.69 from 4.55.

Its about commercial paper rates and outstanding. The risk of default for lower quality paper increases because of a recession.This spread increases too. If we can say that credit crisis is over,this spread would decline.

After these indicators change, i cant say that things going well. Still problem on economy and volatility still too high. We need to follow and see.

Final Countdown

2008-10-30T14:42:00.002+02:00

And the result ;

The U.S. economy, weakened by the worst consumer spending in 28 years, contracted last summer, beginning a slump that some fear could turn into a deep recession.

The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economy, fell to an annual rate of 0.3% in the period. That compared with a 2.8% growth rate in the second quarter, when economic stimulus checks and strong exports spurred by a weak dollar resulted in solid growth that vanished in the latest reading.

The slump in growth last quarter was the biggest since the third quarter of 2001. The economy contracted at a 0.2 percent pace in the last three months of 2007.

And personal consumption expenditures (PCE) declined -3.1% (annualized). This is the first decline in consumer spending since 1991. Private investment declined -1.9%

The decline wasn't quite as bad as forecasts. But still frightening. U.S economy got big sign of a recession.

What a Record

2008-10-30T14:25:00.002+02:00

Exxon Mobil set a quarterly profit record for a U.S. company, surging past analyst estimates. Exxon said its third-quarter net profit was $14.83 billion, or $2.86 per share, up from $9.41 billion, or $1.70, a year earlier. That profit included $1.45 billion in special items.

The company said its revenue totaled $137.7 billion in the third quarter.

Analysts had expected Exxon to report a 40% jump in earnings to $2.38 per share, or net income of $12.2 billion, and a 28% surge in revenues to $131.13 billion.

The company's earnings were buoyed by oil prices, which reached record highs in the quarter before declining. Oil prices were trading at $140.97 a barrel at the beginning of the third quarter, and had fallen to $100.64 at the end.

After touching a record above $147 a barrel in July, crude prices tumbled nearly $60 as demand for fuel grew. Exxon Mobil has dropped 27 percent this year in New York stock trading,.

UK House Prices Decline

2008-10-30T12:16:00.004+02:00

One bad news here today. The main problem of credit crisis-house prices decline-still keep going. U.K. house prices dropped by the most in at least 17 years. The average cost of a home fell 14.6 percent from a year earlier.

U.K. policy makers are trying to ease strains in credit markets. Consumer borrowing rose at the slowest pace and mortgage approvals stayed close to the lowest in at least nine years, Bank of England figures show.

Deutsche Bank 3Q Profit

2008-10-30T12:00:00.002+02:00

Deutsche Bank posted a 73% drop in net profit in the third quarter, beating analysts' expectations of a loss. It reported write-downs of another $1.5 billion on mortgage-backed securities. Analysts had predicted a loss. But Deutsche Bank in terms of assets, earned $528.7 million in the July-September period, compared with 1.6 billion euros a year earlier.

The bank said its pretax income also slid lower to 93 million euros ($118.7 million) from last year's 1.4 billion euros.

The bank's revenue came in at 4.4 billion euros ($5.62 billion), hampered by the 1.2 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in write-downs at its corporate banking and securities unit.

The revenue figure was down 14 percent from last year's 5.1 billion euros. Last year's figure included 2.2 billion euros in write-downs.

As results were boosted by a reclassification of assets under new European Union accounting rules and a tax benefit.

After this unexpected profit report, DB shares up 13.74%-3.48 EUR right now. Price is 28.78 EUR in Frankfurt.

At least earnings were better than feared and the use of new accounting rules helping good way.

GM-Chrysler Talks

2008-10-29T21:15:00.002+02:00

Just read report from Reuters : Major issues resolved in GM-Chrysler talks-sources

General Motors and Cerberus Capital have resolved the major issues in a proposed GM-Chrysler merger but the final form of any deal will depend on the financing and government support available. As GM seeks some $10 billion in U.S. government aid to support the deal, Chrysler owner Cerberus is in its own set of intense discussions with banks to refinance $9 billion of Chrysler debt ...

GM will be the number one auto-maker again. Toyota has passed GM while ago.

GM sold 2.11 million vehicles in the [third] quarter. That pushed GM, until recently the world's largest auto maker by sales, further behind Toyota Motor Corp., which last week reported third-quarter global sales of 2.24 million vehicles.

GM shares up 9.56% today $6.84 after big fall. There is YtY chart of GM and u can see that shares slumped. There was some speculation about bankruptcy request by GM and markets went down.

Rate Cut will Help ?

2008-10-29T20:24:00.003+02:00

I don't think so. I think bonds think so too. U.S. Treasurys rose today ahead of an anticipated rate cut by the Fed, as investors worried that the government's intervention may not be enough to stave off a recession.

Fed cuts its key funds rate by a half percentage point to 1%. Real funds rate is negative in U.S.

Treasurys usually sell off when rate cuts are expected, as they tend to be inflationary. But commodity prices moving down so pressure is decreasing about inflation.

Of course we cant be sure how bonds are going to react to the Fed decision. The yield on the 3-month bill fell to 0.68% from 0.74% yesterday. 10-year note rose 2/32 to 101-12/32, and its yield fell to 3.83% from 3.84. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

( Image downloaded from cnn.money.com )

The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill is closely watched as an immediate reading on investor confidence. Investors and money-market funds shuffle money into and out of the 3-month bill frequently, as they assess risk in the rest of the marketplace. A higher yield indicates that investors are slightly more optimistic. Thats why 3 months yield is my indicator of credit crisis.

( Image downloaded from cnn.money.com )

Another indicator, the TED spread, measures the difference between the 3-month Libor and the 3-month Treasury bill, and is a key indicator of risk. The higher the spread, the less willing investors are to take risks.

Fed cuts rate today but i dont think it will help markets. But im gonna follow these indicators about confidince and risks for investors.

Oil Rebounds

2008-10-29T19:21:00.002+02:00

The dollar fell the most since 1998 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as economists forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut the target lending rate by a half-percentage point today.

So weak dollar and global market stocks rebound help lift oil prices. The price of oil pushed higher today as rising stock prices overseas tempered concerns about waning demand and the dollar retreated from recent highs.

Crude oil for December delivery climbed as much as $6.18, or 9.9 percent, to $68.91 a barrel on the NYMXE. So today energy shares help gain markets. Massey, Consol and Peabody energy shares up nearly 13 percent for now.

Lets See My Indicators : Credit Crisis

2008-10-29T18:56:00.003+02:00

The yield on three-months treasuries : It was 1.62% a month ago. Right now its 0.60%. Down 20%. Traders may think about rates. Thats why its going down.

USD-JPY currencies : 97.63 right now. The yen rose 0.4 percent to 97.63 per dollar from 98.03 yesterday, when it fell 5.4 percent, its biggest decline in more than three decades. Seems not bad.

The TED spread : 2.79 now. This is still way too high, but significantly below the peak of 4.63 on Oct 10th.

VIX : 67.94 right now. Its still high but below the record value of 80.6

Indicators mostly unchanged. So i can't say that sun will shine soon.

LIBOR Declines Today

2008-10-29T17:09:00.002+02:00

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars fell 5 basis points today to 3.42 percent, its 13th straight decline, according to the British Bankers' Association.

Bloomberg reports this news but TED spread has increased because of 3-months treasusary yield has declined. 10 year treasury yield 3.82% right now. I see traders' expecting that Fed might cut the Fed Funds rate by 75 bps today.

I see oil prices rebound after 17-months low and VIX up to 69.77 right now. Dow is unstable today and waiting for Fed rate decision.

Its time to wait and see...