Retail Sales Fall

Retail sales fell for the fifth straight month in November as mounting job losses last month curbed consumers' ability and willingness to spend money in stores. The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell 1.8% last month, compared with a revised 2.9% drop in October, the worst monthly sales on record. October sales were originally reported to have tumbled 2.8%.

Sales excluding autos and auto parts fell 1.6% in November, compared to a revised 2.4% drop in October. Ex-auto sales were originally reported to have fallen 2.2% in October.

The Census Bureau reports that retail sales collapsed in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $355.7 billion, a decrease of 1.8 percent from the previous month and 7.4 percent below November 2007. Total sales for the September through November 2008 period were down 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2008 percent change was revised from -2.8 percent to -2.9 percent.

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993.

Click on graph for larger image

( Graph link : http://calculated.blogspot.com )







To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (November PCE prices was estimated as the same as October).

Retail sales are a key portion of consumer spending and real retail sales have fallen off a cliff.